Regime Mixing in Perpetual Futures Signals
The pooled funding-divergence result hid a state-dependent pattern. Conditioning on observed open-interest and price quadrants changed the signal's meaning.
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Research
Original studies built from order books, trades, funding, open interest, and liquidation history.
Funding Rates as a Positioning Signal
Across ten Hyperliquid markets, the funding-adjusted return was a weak standalone mean-reversion signal but a useful map of positioning, carry, and settled funding.
For 49 Hours During the Iran Strikes, Hyperliquid Was the Only Liquid Oil Market
Tick-level analysis of Hyperliquid oil markets during the Iran strikes, covering 24/7 price discovery, CME closure gaps, and HIP-3 market structure.
Hyperliquid: Weekend Price Discovery in 24/7 Markets
Research on Hyperliquid weekend price discovery during crude oil market stress, covering off-hours liquidity, reopen accuracy, and bounding bands.
Weekend Market Note: Hormuz Blockade
Weekend market note on TradeXYZ's oil-driven session during Hormuz blockade risk, crude repricing, equity weakness, and weekend price discovery.
Pre-IPO Perpetuals
Analysis of TradeXYZ's CBRS pre-IPO perpetual, covering continuous price discovery, synthetic access, liquidity, and convergence into the Nasdaq open.
Addressing Hyperliquid's HIP-3 Deployer Bottleneck
Research on HIP-3 deployer concentration, TradeXYZ dominance, weak marginal economics, and proposed changes to market-creation incentives.
Who is trading on HIP-3?
Orderflow analysis across seven HIP-3 markets on Hyperliquid, covering 175,000 wallets, $161B in volume, builders, and trader categories.
Who is actually trading on Trade.xyz?
Wallet-level analysis of who traded on trade.xyz, separating market makers, arbitrage bots, retail users, and airdrop-farming activity.
The Oil Trader's Guide to the Strait of Hormuz
Research on Strait of Hormuz oil-market disruption, physical crude pricing, and the HIP-3 opportunity for commodity price discovery on Hyperliquid.
Can Hyperliquid Predict the S&P 500?
Analysis of trade.xyz's S&P 500 perpetual market on Hyperliquid, including price discovery, informed flow, basis signals, and wallet behavior.
Two Weeks of HIP-4: A Forensic Look at Hyperliquid's Outcome Markets
Forensic analysis of HIP-4's first two weeks on Hyperliquid, covering wallets, order flow, builders, liquidity, and prediction-market pricing.